Professor Yadigaroglu asks in his „Leserkommentar“ of February 9, 2012, whether anything has changed between the two energy reports of ESC/ETHZ (2008, 2011) which could justify, what he suggests are contradictions between the two studies by "roughly the same authors".

There are clear answers to this question, as evident from the following considerations: The 2008 report had its focus on the overarching strategic goal of decarbonisation of the global energy system, forecasted a significant increase of electricity share in end-energy demand and described paths towards the 1t CO2/(cap. year) target. It is correct, that-depending on local/regional circumstances, a wide portfolio of power generation technologies including nuclear and fossile with Carbon Capture and Storage was thereby envisioned.

The 2011 study did not attempt to suddenly expel nuclear energy from the portfolio, nor did it state anything particularly negative on nuclear energy. It just examined, under which circumstances for the concrete case of Switzerland, a long-term phase-out of nuclear-based power generation as envisioned by the Federal Council in the aftermath of Fukushima would be affordable.

To this end, we assess different scenarios in order to deal with several uncertainties for such long-term forecasts. In this sense, the study concludes that under the premises of a coherent energy policy and research-induced advancement of specific energy technologies, meeting the long-term climate challenge is feasible and economically affordable, even without a nuclear component in the Swiss power generation portfolio from about 2040 on. We have explicitly stated however that this transition will be anything but trivial.
So far the facts, which can be easily inspected on the basis of the full report, available from the website of the Energy Science Center since November 15, 2011. I intend to develop further the expressed ideas above in an article which will be published soon on http://blogs.ethz.ch/klimablog

Prof. Konstantinos Boulouchos - 19.03.12

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